ENERGY CONTRACTS – 24/04/2026

Welcome to AYA’s energy market update for April 2026. This month: how geopolitics drives gas price scenarios, our 31 March webinar on protecting your energy budget, flexible grid connections in Belgium, and new data on solar performance and project design.

Gas Markets on Edge as Geopolitics Drives Price Scenarios

European gas markets continue to be shaped by geopolitical uncertainty and global LNG dynamics. The TTF spot price has averaged €40.90/MWh year-to-date, with recent levels around €45/MWh for the front month.

Storage levels currently stand at approximately 30%, maintaining concerns around replenishment ahead of the next winter season.

The key driver remains the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Around 20% of global LNG flows have been disrupted due to recent tensions. Analysts suggest that if the route reopens in late May and Qatari exports resume gradually, prices could stabilise slightly above €40/MWh for the remainder of the year. However, delays would significantly increase upside risk. In a prolonged disruption scenario, prices could reach €60–70/MWh, and exceed €100/MWh if constraints persist into the summer refill period. These figures are forward-looking estimates for 2026 and are subject to significant uncertainty depending on geopolitical and supply developments.

Global LNG flows are increasingly flexible. Large portfolio players can redirect volumes across regions, limiting extreme supply shocks. Even in the absence of Russian pipeline gas, alternative sources can partially compensate. However, this flexibility reduces direct competition with Asia. When prices rise sharply, demand destruction becomes visible. For example, Asian buyers, particularly China, tend to switch to coal or oil when LNG becomes too expensive. This creates a natural ceiling for prices, while fuel-switching economics also define a lower bound.

Norwegian pipeline flows have been instrumental in rapidly bringing European storage levels close to the 30% threshold. However, scheduled maintenance works have recently started, leading to a temporary reduction. Imports to Europe declined from over 340 million cubic meters per day prior to maintenance to below 250 million cubic meters during the peak of the works, before recovering to around 300 million cubic meters per day more recently, with maintenance activities still ongoing.

Febeliec has warned that Belgian industry continues to face a significant electricity price disadvantage, estimated at 6–17% above neighbouring countries, despite broadly rising costs across Europe. This creates a ‘double handicap’ for energy-intensive sectors, compounded by globally elevated energy prices and increasing climate-related cost pressures. Brussels is expected to announce additional emergency energy measures in response to ongoing market stress. However, there is limited expectation that these interventions will directly benefit industrial consumers.

‘As long as geopolitical risks remain unresolved, gas prices will continue to react sharply to supply disruptions and demand shifts’
Mustafa Yanginci, Energy Manager

For energy-intensive companies, this environment requires a disciplined and flexible contracting strategy. Price volatility creates both risk and opportunity, but timing remains critical. We support clients in aligning their hedging strategy with their risk appetite, ensuring budget stability while maintaining the ability to react to market movements.

For guidance on how to navigate gas market volatility within your energy contracts, please contact your Energy Manager.

WEBINAR REPLAY – 03/04/2026

Don’t let the market control your energy budget

On March 31, Alexandre Indekeu (Managing Director) and Baudouin Vervrangen (Energy Partner) at AYA shared 60 minutes of market knowledge on protecting your energy budget. Spot gas is up 83%. Spot power up 25%. Forward gas up 41%.

Three structural forces are driving these price moves and none of them are going away soon. Here’s what you can do about it.

• Assess: What’s happening in the market and what’s the worst case? Gas storage needs 69-80 BCM injection this year, significantly more than 2025.
• Impact: How exposed is your company? Fully, partially, or largely hedged?
• Click strategy: Is yours in place? Time to review? Hedge more volume on the short term? Stop-loss clicked?
• Contracts: When does your coverage end? 2027 should have been covered in 2025.
• Batteries & flex: Are your assets working as hard as they could? Battery + flex turns exposure into revenue.

Watch the recording and download the slides

ENERGY ROADMAP – 10/04/2026

Flexible Grid Connections: From Capacity to Conditional Access

Grid congestion in Belgium is no longer an exception, it is becoming structural. As a result, new grid connections are increasingly based on flexibility rather than firm capacity. This shift is clearly reflected in Elia’s orientation studies, which define not only how much capacity is available, but also how often it can be curtailed.

The key concept is simple: companies are no longer guaranteed full access to their requested capacity. Instead, they receive flexible capacity, which can be reduced based on grid conditions. For example, a connection of 175 MW may be fully flexible, meaning it can be curtailed when needed, whereas firm capacity guarantees uninterrupted access.

Preventive flexibility is the main driver of this model. Unlike curative flexibility, which responds to unexpected events, preventive flexibility is planned and occurs regularly. It can affect operations around 10–20% of the time, based on simulations of grid constraints.

Importantly, this does not mean full shutdown during these periods. Curtailment is typically distributed across different levels, with many instances involving only partial reductions. However, the real impact lies in the percentage of flexible energy. In some cases, up to 18% of annual energy consumption may be affected.

‘Flexible capacity is not a reliability issue, it is an operational constraint that must be actively managed’
Christof Deckmyn, Energy Partner

For energy-intensive companies, this fundamentally changes how investments and operations should be planned. Decisions can no longer be based on installed capacity alone. Instead, companies must adopt a probabilistic approach, considering when and how capacity will be available.

This requires a clear flexibility strategy. Options include shifting consumption, integrating on-site solutions such as batteries, or accepting controlled curtailment. Each approach has different economic and operational implications.

We help clients interpret these complex studies correctly, avoiding costly misjudgements and ensuring that investments align with actual grid conditions.

To understand how flexible grid access will impact your operations and investment decisions, we recommend contacting your Energy Manager for tailored support.

ENERGY ASSETS – 17/04/2026

Higher Performance, Lower Costs, and Rising Complexity

Recent developments in energy assets bring positive news for companies investing in solar PV, alongside important considerations for future project design.

A large-scale German study analysing 1.2 million installations shows that solar panel degradation is lower than expected. Annual efficiency losses are estimated at 0.5–0.6%, closely aligned with, or even better than, manufacturer guarantees.

This confirms that performance assumptions used in business cases are robust. In practice, this means that systems may deliver slightly higher output over their lifetime than initially forecast. Even small improvements in degradation rates can translate into meaningful gains, with production levels supporting up to 5% better levelised cost of energy (LCOE). For energy-intensive companies, this directly strengthens the long-term profitability of energy asset investments and improves return visibility.

At the same time, new opportunities are emerging in previously inaccessible segments. A recent European assessment identified up to 85 GW of untapped solar potential on commercial and industrial rooftops. The key constraint has been structural: many buildings cannot bear the weight of conventional panels. Lightweight solar solutions now offer a viable alternative, enabling deployment without costly structural reinforcements. These technologies can reduce upgrade costs by €150,000 to €200,000 per MW installed, significantly improving project feasibility while supporting compliance with evolving EU building regulations.

However, increasing system sophistication also introduces new risks. The rise of hybrid systems, combining solar PV with battery storage, adds operational complexity. For example, when assets are connected through hybrid inverters, a single failure can impact both generation and storage simultaneously. This creates a higher exposure to downtime and associated financial losses.

To address this, industry bodies have defined best practices for technical due diligence, focusing on five key areas: financial robustness, supply chain integrity, cybersecurity, sustainability, and climate resilience. Early-stage validation is critical, as resolving design issues during development is up to ten times cheaper than fixing them during operation.

‘Fixing a defect in the design phase is ten times cheaper than during operation’
Léopold Ryelandt, Energy Partner

For energy-intensive companies, the message is clear: energy assets remain a strong and increasingly reliable investment, but project design must evolve with system complexity. We support clients in validating technical choices, optimising business cases, and ensuring robust project delivery from the outset.

We advise clients to work closely with their energy manager to assess the technical design and due diligence requirements of their energy asset projects.