ON-site – 27/03/2026

Solar and Battery Prices Under Pressure: Act Before the April Shock

Chinese policy shifts are pushing up solar and battery costs, threatening the economics of 2026 projects.

On-site energy project economics remain highly favourable, but warning signs are flashing for 2026. Chinese export policy changes, rising raw material costs, and high demand are converging to drive up prices for key technologies like PV-modules and battery storage.

Module prices have already risen by 20–30% in distribution channels, driven by full-capacity production in China ahead of a new 2026 export tax. Starting 1 April, Chinese authorities will eliminate key export discounts for PV and battery products. In the project sector, price hikes of up to 20% are now expected. Batteries, which saw an 8% cost drop in 2025, are also under pressure due to higher lithium, copper, and cobalt costs and shrinking VAT rebates.

These shifts come at a time when renewables and batteries are already outperforming fossil generation on cost, especially when carbon prices are included. But with the economics set to deteriorate, timing becomes critical.

‘Right now, the price point is extremely attractive, but it’s unlikely to last past Q1.’
Léopold Ryelandt, Energy Manager 

We urge clients planning on-site investments to accelerate timelines. Projects initiated in Q1 2026 will likely lock in the current price advantages, while delays could erode margins and threaten viability. Reach out to your Energy Manager for tailored guidance on securing procurement before costs escalate.

ppas – 27/03/2026

2025 Capture Rates Highlight Shift Toward Hybrid and Curtailable PPAs

Our latest update on wind and solar capture rates, based on Elia data and the capture value tool, reveals clear market trends for structuring PPAs in 2025.

Solar generation captured just 38% of the spot price last year, despite a recovery from 2024’s record lows. With an average spot price of €83/MWh, PV projects suffered from €40/MWh cannibalisation, nearly half the market price.

Even so, imbalance prices dropped compared to previous years, and curtailment emerges as a key lever. With smart curtailment, solar capture rates increase to 59% of the spot price, reducing cannibalisation from €40/MWh to €22/MWh. This suggests that PPAs with embedded curtailment clauses can significantly improve economics for both producers and offtakers.

Wind performance remained more stable. Wind captured 82% of the spot price, with modest cannibalisation (€11/MWh) and low imbalance costs (€3/MWh). At a capture value of €68/MWh, wind PPAs continue to offer a robust business case.

The number of negative price hours also jumped to 520 in 2025, 6% of the year, mostly in Q2 and Q3. This trend may stabilise in 2026 thanks to the rollout of quarter-hour pricing and battery storage projects. Still, it reinforces the urgency to structure PPAs that can manage volatility and minimise exposure to low or negative prices.

For energy-intensive clients, these figures underline the shift in viable contract models. On-site solar still delivers clear value due to avoided grid fees. But for off-site projects, standalone solar PPAs face shrinking margins unless paired with storage or curtailed smartly. Future-ready PPA strategies must prioritise dispatchability, hybridisation, and active imbalance cost control.

TTF spot gas prices have dropped to €28/MWh, with lows of €26.50, driven by ample LNG supply, full Norwegian pipeline flows, and milder-than-expected winter temperatures. Forward prices through 2029 remain attractive, creating a short-term opportunity for buyers. However, this market softness belies deeper volatility ahead. 

Much of Europe’s gas security now rests on US LNG. Following the effective ban on Russian imports, the EU may need 15 bcm more LNG this year, largely from American terminals. With US project delays and surging Asian demand, Europe could soon face a squeeze. Geopolitical frictions, from supply disruptions to broader transatlantic tensions, further complicate strategic autonomy.

‘Curtailment isn’t just a risk to manage, it’s now a design feature of viable solar PPAs.’

Emilie Dekimpe, Energy Manager

To assess how these trends affect your PPA strategy or current contract terms, reach out to your Energy Manager.

energy contracts – 27/03/2026

Gas Markets on Edge as Storage Drops and Hormuz Risk Returns 

European gas markets are entering a fragile phase. Storage levels have fallen below 31%. This is comparable to 2022 levels. The system has limited buffer against late winter cold spells or unexpected supply disruptions.

On 19 February, front-month TTF prices surged by around 10%. The trigger was renewed concern about potential disruptions to Qatari LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, following escalating US–Iran tensions. The scenario remains hypothetical. However, the reaction illustrates how little margin for error currently exists in the European gas balance.
Europe continues to act as the global LNG sink. Imports are up significantly year-to-date as the continent absorbs surplus cargoes. This inflow helps stabilise prices despite low storage. LNG imports are expected to rise further this year to rebuild inventories.

Forward gas markets have become increasingly sensitive. Year+1 prices incorporate a visible risk premium linked to storage and geopolitics. Year+2 and Year+3 levels remain structurally more attractive.

Carbon markets add another layer of volatility. EUA prices recently dropped on speculation that the linear reduction factor for allowances after 2029 could be eased. This would temporarily increase supply. Prices rebounded to around €72/tonne. Despite possible adjustments, Europe remains on a structural path toward declining allowances and eventual supply tightness. High volatility is expected ahead of scheduled rule revisions this summer.

Meanwhile, Italy has approved a wholesale power reform reimbursing gas transmission costs and reducing carbon costs for thermal plants. Analysts estimate this could lower Italian wholesale prices significantly and reduce imports. However, renewable revenues and PPA viability may come under pressure, and EU state aid compatibility remains uncertain.

For energy-intensive industries, this environment requires discipline. Short-term moves are driven by geopolitics and carbon speculation. Structural trends remain linked to storage rebuild, LNG dynamics and policy decisions.

‘Low storage means every geopolitical headline now carries pricing power.’

Mustafa Yanginci, Energy Manager

We help you interpret market signals and align hedging with your long-term risk framework. Speak to your Energy Manager to review your position in light of current gas and carbon volatility.