Profile First. Tender Second. Know Your Real Energy Profile Before You Hedge

‘If you hedge volumes in your energy contract without understanding your true consumption profile, you are not reducing risk. You might be increasing it. ’ Freek Libbrecht , Head of Traditional

Hedging only works when it fits reality. Many organisations still hedge their full forecasted volumes without checking whether those volumes align with their actual load profile. That creates a hidden exposure. When hedged volumes exceed consumption, companies must sell excess energy back into the spot market exactly when prices collapse. In those moments, the hedge stops being protection and becomes a financial liability.

A proper profile analysis exposes this risk. It shows how your consumption shifts across hours, seasons, weekdays, and production states. It reveals how shutdowns or rampups distort your pattern, and how your load correlates with the spot market. Without this insight, you cannot know whether your current hedging behaviour reduces volatility or unintentionally magnifies it.

Once you understand your actual energy consumption profile, you must project it forward. Electrification, new equipment, flexible assets, and on-site generation will all reshape your future baseline. If you ignore these changes, you start a new contract with structurally wrong volumes from day one.

With a complete, future-proofed profile, you can choose the right mix of fixed and variable volumes. You can hedge at moments that reflect your risk appetite instead of market noise. And you can tender for products that align with how your operations truly behave, preparing your budget for the volatility that will define 2026 and the years after.

I will explain these principles in detail during the Energy Hedging 2.0 webinar on 16 December. If you want clarity, control, and real risk reduction in your next tender, this session is the place to start.