ENERGY CONTRACTS – 31/08/2026

Welcome to AYA’s energy market update for August 2026. This month: every price on the AYA board closed higher in the last week of August, five of them at their 2026 high, as low gas storage and Qatar’s extended force majeure outweighed three forces pushing prices down.

Every price up, five at their 2026 high

Three forces were pushing gas down last week. It rose anyway, out to 2030.

Three forces were pushing gas down. It rose anyway.

Every one of the twenty prices in the AYA table closed higher last week. Five closed exactly at their 2026 high.

Three forces were pushing gas down at the same time: Norwegian maintenance ending, the Rhine refilling, the heat gone. It rose anyway, for every delivery period out to 2030.

Closing prices, Friday 28 August 2026

• TTF gas, September, €/MWh: 66.98 (+1.48% on the week)
• Brent, $ per barrel: 88.10 (76.71 €/bbl, the only one to fall)
• Belgian power, September, €/MWh: 140.08 (+2.62% on the week)
• CO₂ EUA spot, € per tonne: 82.21 (+2.56% on the week)

Gas for delivery in September stopped trading before Friday, so October is the front month from 1 September and is the figure shown here.

In one minute

• Every price rose, and five are at their 2026 high. Belgian power for the second quarter of 2027, for 2027 and for 2030, and gas for 2028 and 2029, all closed Friday exactly at their highest level of the year. Eighteen of the nineteen prices with a Friday close sit at 95% or more of their 2026 range.
• Power rose more than gas. Belgian power for the fourth quarter of 2026 went up 3.31%, against 1.24% for gas for the same quarter. A gas plant pays for gas and for carbon, and carbon closed at 82.21 euro per tonne, 2.56% higher.
• Empty storage is why the winter is expensive. European gas storage was 63% full on 26 August, the lowest for that date since 2021, against a five year average near 79%. Germany is at 50.1%, Belgium and the Netherlands both in the 40s.
• Qatar keeps extending. On 28 August QatarEnergy extended its force majeure on LNG through October, with some European cargoes pushed into early November. Qatari exports are down roughly 96% over six months.
• The spot price, the price for delivery the next day, halved over the weekend, and the years did not follow. Belgium paid 161.81 euro per MWh on Thursday and 75.49 on Sunday 30 August. Belgian power for 2027 closed the week 2.73% higher.

Nothing on the board is cheap against its own year

Five prices closed Friday exactly at their 2026 high: Belgian power for the second quarter of 2027 at 94.77 euro per MWh, for 2027 at 110.02 and for 2030 at 74.69, and gas for 2028 at 32.63 and for 2029 at 26.54. Gas for 2030 is the only price with real distance left to its own high, at 89% of its range. A rise of one percent means something different when the starting point is the top of the year.

Power moved more than the gas underneath it

Power rose more than gas for October, November, the fourth quarter of 2026, the first quarter of 2027 and the year 2027. Gas rose more for the second quarter of 2027 and for 2028 and 2029. The difference is carbon: a gas plant pays for its gas and for its emission allowances, so when those two rise in the same week the power price rises by more than the gas price alone.

‘Three forces were pushing gas down last week, and it rose anyway.’

Gas storage

European gas storage was 63% full on 26 August, the lowest for that date since 2021 and against a five year average near 79%. Germany sits at 50.1%, its lowest seasonal level since at least 2011, and Belgium and the Netherlands are both in the 40s, which are the hubs Belgian supply actually leans on. Europe is working towards 80% before winter this year instead of the usual 90%, because refilling has been too slow.

Qatar and the Strait of Hormuz

QatarEnergy extended its force majeure on LNG on 28 August, through October, with some European cargoes now arriving in early November, and Qatari exports are down roughly 96% over six months. On 16 August three vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz in a day, against roughly 130 a day before the war. What Qatar does not send is not made up elsewhere: Asia paid 23.20 dollar per MMBtu for October delivery against 22.48 dollar for TTF, and while Asia pays more, a spare cargo does not come here.

The three that pulled the other way

Maintenance at Troll, Åsgard and Kårstø has finished, so more Norwegian pipeline gas is coming into north west Europe. The Rhine at Kaub read 6 centimetres on 14 August, the lowest ever measured, and was back to about 60 centimetres on Friday, and coal that reaches a German power plant by barge is coal that gas does not have to replace. The weather has gone quiet as well, with Belgium between 19 and 24 degrees to mid September. All three worked against the price, and the price rose anyway.

The week ahead

The price for delivery the next day has already fallen. Belgium went from 138.94 euro per MWh on Monday to 161.81 on Thursday and 75.49 on Sunday 30 August, when the weather turned mild and breezy. Germany and France both went below zero at midday on that Sunday.

At eight in the evening all three countries paid close to 193 euro per MWh. When the sun drops away around seven while demand is still there, a gas plant has to close the gap, and that plant pays for gas and for carbon.

The forward prices did not follow the mild week down. A quiet week lowers the price of tomorrow, not the years you still have to buy.

Two things to watch in September: the weekly storage figure, and any further extension out of Qatar.

The verdict

The spot market fell hard over the weekend and none of that reached the forward prices, which tells you the market is looking past this week’s mild weather at a winter it is not comfortable about.

AYA Market Update deck, week 36, 31 August 2026

Our advice

Nothing on the board is low against its own year. Belgian power for 2027 closed at 110.02 euro per MWh, against an average for 2026 of 85.31 and a low of 71.86. Gas for 2028 closed at 32.63 against a low for the year of 22.71, exactly at its high.

The later years were long the place where budget certainty was cheap. This week they are not: gas for 2028 and 2029 both closed exactly at their 2026 high, and gas for 2030 is the only price on the board with real distance left, at 89% of its range.

Whether, and how much, you fix at this stage depends on your own position and risk appetite, and is not a single piece of advice that applies to every company. Talk your hedging strategy through with your AYA Energy Manager, who can guide you through the current levels for your contract.

Sources

All prices come from the AYA Market Update of 31 August 2026, with the closing prices of Friday 28 August 2026, unless stated otherwise. Market context: EMP Weekly Energy Overview of 26 August 2026.