Market Update September 2025
Are you sure you are not wasting €100 000 per year on your energy budget?
For companies with an annual energy spend of around €2 million, commodity and non-commodity combined, savings are often hiding in plain sight.
In practice, organisations achieve an average saving of 8% on the commodity part of their energy budget. Not through luck or market timing, but through structure.
Those savings typically come from three levers:
- Contract tendering
- Click strategy
- Invoice control
Yet one lever is underestimated.
Clicks without a strategy feel active, but reduce control.
Most click decisions happen reactively.
Prices rise. Budgets come under pressure. A click is made.
It feels like active management.
In reality, there is no predefined decision framework.
Each click becomes a one-off decision.
Uncertainty increases. Budget control decreases.
Depending on market conditions and risk profile, power and gas click moments makes up to a 20% difference in the commodity price.
“The misunderstanding about click strategy is that it’s a choice between fully fixed or fully floating. The real value lies in between. By aligning click moments with budget targets and risk appetite, you build a unit price that leaves room to benefit from market evolutions.”
Volatility is not the enemy. Disorganization is.
Looking at historical forward prices, the same pattern repeats itself every year.
Within a single delivery year, electricity and gas prices often fluctuate by tens of percent.
This means the exact same volume can be fixed at very different prices within the same year.
- Companies that fix everything at once depend entirely on timing.
- Companies that spread decisions build their price step by step and end up closer to the market average.
- Organisations that take those decisions within a predefined framework consistently perform better than the average.
Not by predicting the market.
But by organising decisions.
A click strategy starts from your organisation.
A well-designed click strategy answers critical questions:
- How sensitive is your budget to price fluctuations?
- What level of risk is acceptable?
- Which volumes must be secured, and which can fluctuate?
- Over what time horizon are decisions spread?
These answers translate into a clear framework with predefined click moments, bandwidths and rules.
Without structure, volatility controls you.
With structure, volatility becomes a tool.
Winter Gas Risks Persist as Storage and Supply Constraints Dominate Outlook
Temporary Stability in Gas Prices
Despite recent price stability, the European gas market remains exposed to several structural risks. TTF spot prices hovered around €32/MWh, a level seen as a consensus price by traders. Yet this equilibrium masks key underlying drivers that could disrupt the market during the upcoming winter.
Storage levels are below the recent five-year average, and Norwegian maintenance will temporarily remove up to 10% of Europe’s daily import capacity in early September.
While the market has dismissed this as noise, it could strain injection rates ahead of winter.
China-Russia LNG Trade Alters Global Dynamics
Geopolitical developments are also shifting supply expectations. China has begun accepting Russian LNG through Arctic shipping routes, circumventing Western sanctions. This is reducing Chinese demand for US LNG, potentially freeing up supply for Europe. However, these Arctic routes will close as winter sets in, and China’s future LNG strategy remains uncertain.
“Today’s calm reflects consensus, not certainty. The underlying risk profile for winter is building.”
Simon Van Puyvelde, Energy Coordinator
At each step of the energy roadmap, we build a clear business case before taking action. From contract tenders delivering up to 5% savings to optimising power and gas markets with impacts of up to 20%, coherence turns analysis into measurable financial results.
Dimitri Van Hoe, Head of Operations