Are you sure you are not wasting €100 000 per year on your energy budget?
For companies with an annual energy spend of around €2 million, commodity and non-commodity combined, savings are often hiding in plain sight.

In practice, organisations achieve an average saving of 8% on the commodity part of their energy budget. Not through luck or market timing, but through structure.

Yet one lever is underestimated.

Clicks without a strategy feel active, but reduce control.

Most click decisions happen reactively.
Prices rise. Budgets come under pressure. A click is made.

It feels like active management.
In reality, there is no predefined decision framework.

Each click becomes a one-off decision.
Uncertainty increases. Budget control decreases.

Depending on market conditions and risk profile, power and gas click moments makes up to a 20% difference in the commodity price.

Volatility is not the enemy. Disorganization is.
Looking at historical forward prices, the same pattern repeats itself every year.
Within a single delivery year, electricity and gas prices often fluctuate by tens of percent.
This means the exact same volume can be fixed at very different prices within the same year.

- Companies that fix everything at once depend entirely on timing.
- Companies that spread decisions build their price step by step and end up closer to the market average.
- Organisations that take those decisions within a predefined framework consistently perform better than the average.

Not by predicting the market.
But by organising decisions.

A click strategy starts from your organisation.

A well-designed click strategy answers critical questions:
- How sensitive is your budget to price fluctuations?
- What level of risk is acceptable?
- Which volumes must be secured, and which can fluctuate?
- Over what time horizon are decisions spread?

These answers translate into a clear framework with predefined click moments, bandwidths and rules.
Without structure, volatility controls you.
With structure, volatility becomes a tool.

Week 1

Mild Winter, Steady Nuclear, Volatile World: What to Watch in Early 2026 

The start of 2026 brings relative calm in the traditional energy markets, but with several flashing indicators that energy-intensive businesses must keep firmly on their radar. 

Gas prices in Europe are stable for now, with the Dutch TTF front-month contract at €28.49/MWh. The spot price sits slightly higher at €29.19/MWh, nudged up by forecasts of colder-than-average temperatures in early January. Germany, Europe’s largest gas consumer, is experiencing temperatures 4.9°C below seasonal norms. While strong LNG availability and high Norwegian flows (342.6 mcm/day) are keeping the market well supplied, forecasts point to only 26% gas storage by 1 April. If cold weather lingers, prices could rise rapidly. 

On the power side, Belgian futures continue to mirror gas price trends. With power generation now less carbon-intensive, the historical rule linking power to 2x gas + 0.5 EUA no longer holds. Today, a more accurate estimate is 1.7x gas + less than 0.5 EUA. The Belgian generation mix in 2025 shows strong nuclear reliance (34%), but no major additions are expected before 2042. As demand from EVs, industry, and data centres grows, Elia forecasts a 4.4 GW capacity gap by 2035. 

Nuclear stability remains a bright spot. France currently has 62 of 63 GW online, supporting regional supply during winter peaks. However, planned maintenance from February onward could tighten the system. 

Geopolitical tensions are simmering. The U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, following the capture of President Maduro, has so far had minimal impact on European gas markets. Venezuela’s export capacity remains negligible. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has extended its pause on oil production increases through March 2026. Brent M+1 prices hover around $65.50/bbl (€32.85/MWh), with EUA-adjusted cost nearing €52.00/MWh. 

Carbon prices remain high, with EUA spot at €86.33/tCO₂. Auctions resume this week and could influence short-term price movements. 

“In this environment, stability in supply is masking fragility in underlying systems. Consumers should stay agile” Boy Curry-Lindahl, Energy Manager 

To understand how these evolving market signals could affect your portfolio or risk exposure, speak with your Energy Manager about tailored risk reviews and updated hedging frameworks. 

Week 2

Europe’s Gas Markets: Strategic Openings Amid Structural Shifts 

European gas markets are at a pivotal moment. Spot and forward prices have dipped to their lowest in twelve months, opening a temporary window for cost-effective procurement. At the same time, structural pressures are mounting. Europe’s accelerating dependence on US LNG and the upcoming ETS2 carbon scheme are reshaping long-term energy risk. 

TTF spot gas prices have dropped to €28/MWh, with lows of €26.50, driven by ample LNG supply, full Norwegian pipeline flows, and milder-than-expected winter temperatures. Forward prices through 2029 remain attractive, creating a short-term opportunity for buyers. However, this market softness belies deeper volatility ahead. 

Much of Europe’s gas security now rests on US LNG. Following the effective ban on Russian imports, the EU may need 15 bcm more LNG this year, largely from American terminals. With US project delays and surging Asian demand, Europe could soon face a squeeze. Geopolitical frictions, from supply disruptions to broader transatlantic tensions, further complicate strategic autonomy. 

“It’s a short-term dip in prices, not a long-term guarantee. Clients must weigh this window against mid-term supply and policy risks.”  — Mustafa Yanginci, Energy Manager

One of those policy risks is ETS2. From 2028, all gas consumers not already covered by ETS1 will face a carbon cost. The expected impact is around €8/MWh on natural gas, based on a carbon price of €45/ton and a conversion factor of 0.182 tCO₂/MWh. However, it could rise to about €18/MWh if the carbon price were to surge to €100/ton CO₂, in the absence of government regulation to keep prices low and stable during the first years. Suppliers will manage certificates and pass costs through to clients, with pricing and methodology varying significantly across providers. 

These factors demand an integrated view. We urge clients to assess the value of partial or full coverage for 2028-2029 contracts now, before volatility resumes. Clients with electrification or decarbonisation projects underway may benefit from preserving spot exposure. Others may seek price certainty, even with added carbon premiums. 

Your energy manager can help define a position that aligns with your operational needs, risk appetite, and transition plans. Reach out now to review your exposure to carbon costs and LNG-related risks, and to discuss how to optimise your 2026–2029 procurement strategy. 

Week 3

Market Spike or Seasonal Fluctuation? Navigating a Volatile Energy Landscape 

Short-term energy markets surged last week as a cold snap swept across Europe, exposing system vulnerabilities and triggering a wave of volatility. Gas spot prices (TTF) jumped over 20% in five trading sessions, closing Friday near €37/MWh, a level not seen since July. This rapid rise was fuelled not only by weather-driven demand and tighter storage levels, but also by market mechanics: widespread short positions were forcibly unwound, amplifying price moves beyond what fundamentals alone might justify. 

On the power side, output from France’s nuclear fleet dropped due to storm-related disruptions. Only 52 out of 63 GW were online, with Flamanville’s reactors offline after damage to infrastructure. While EDF forecasts 60 GW average availability in February, March is expected to dip to 55 GW due to planned maintenance.  

Despite this turbulence, forward markets paint a more measured picture. TTF gas forwards softened over the week, supported by robust LNG imports and mild mid-term weather forecasts. The Netherlands, for example, saw LNG deliveries outpace pipeline volumes in 2025 for the first time. For power, the outlook remains cautious: opportunities exist but require restraint, especially where new technologies like battery storage are in play. 

“We’re seeing classic winter tightness layered with market psychology. “ — Boy Curry-Lindahl, Energy Manager 

For energy-intensive businesses, the message is clear: don’t let short-term price spikes derail long-term strategy. This is a time for measured positioning. We can help you assess exposure, balance procurement timelines, and use this volatility to your advantage without overcommitting. 

Speak with your Energy Manager to understand how current market dynamics impact your contract timing, risk exposure, and flexibility strategy.

Week 4

Gas Price Spikes Driven by Speculation, Not Supply Risk 

In late January, TTF spot gas surged to a seven-month high, fuelled by a combination of US winter storms, low storage levels, and a dramatic reversal in speculative positions. However, this sharp increase should be viewed in context: the fundamentals of supply and demand remain broadly unchanged. 

The rally was sparked by fears of freeze-offs in US shale regions, which could have reduced LNG exports to Europe. Simultaneously, traders with short positions moved en masse to cover their risks, triggering a feedback loop that amplified price movements. Data from ICE Endex showed a 113 TWh shift from net short to net long in just one week, the third-largest repositioning on record. The result: a ~20% price spike driven largely by speculative, not structural, dynamics. 

Despite the short-term volatility, forward gas prices remain low and stable. Re-gasification capacity in Europe is expanding rapidly, with new German terminals set to double intake by 2027. For Cal 2029, gas prices remain under EUR 23/MWh. Electricity forward markets show similar resilience, with Cal 2028-29 hovering below EUR 75/MWh, even as carbon prices remain elevated. 

This environment presents a strategic window for energy-intensive businesses. Long-term contract opportunities remain attractive, despite short-term volatility. The key is distinguishing transient spikes from enduring trends. 

“We’re seeing extreme short-term moves, but forward gas and power prices still offer strong value for the medium term.” — Boy Curry-Lindahl, Energy Manager 

Clients should review their forward positions now, especially for 2027–2029, and coordinate with their Energy Manager to time procurement around market fundamentals, not market noise.