Are you sure you are not wasting €100 000 per year on your energy budget?
For companies with an annual energy spend of around €2 million, commodity and non-commodity combined, savings are often hiding in plain sight.

In practice, organisations achieve an average saving of 8% on the commodity part of their energy budget. Not through luck or market timing, but through structure.

Yet one lever is underestimated.

Clicks without a strategy feel active, but reduce control.

Most click decisions happen reactively.
Prices rise. Budgets come under pressure. A click is made.

It feels like active management.
In reality, there is no predefined decision framework.

Each click becomes a one-off decision.
Uncertainty increases. Budget control decreases.

Depending on market conditions and risk profile, power and gas click moments makes up to a 20% difference in the commodity price.

Volatility is not the enemy. Disorganization is.
Looking at historical forward prices, the same pattern repeats itself every year.
Within a single delivery year, electricity and gas prices often fluctuate by tens of percent.
This means the exact same volume can be fixed at very different prices within the same year.

- Companies that fix everything at once depend entirely on timing.
- Companies that spread decisions build their price step by step and end up closer to the market average.
- Organisations that take those decisions within a predefined framework consistently perform better than the average.

Not by predicting the market.
But by organising decisions.

A click strategy starts from your organisation.

A well-designed click strategy answers critical questions:
- How sensitive is your budget to price fluctuations?
- What level of risk is acceptable?
- Which volumes must be secured, and which can fluctuate?
- Over what time horizon are decisions spread?

These answers translate into a clear framework with predefined click moments, bandwidths and rules.
Without structure, volatility controls you.
With structure, volatility becomes a tool.

Week 1

Strategic Hedging in a Volatile Winter Market: Why Timing and Tailoring Matter 

Energy prices for 2026 are presenting a window of opportunity. Forward gas is trading around €29.76/MWh and power near €80/MWh, levels that invite consideration for hedging, especially with front-loaded winter demand. But as ever, timing alone doesn’t dictate strategy. What matters is how well that strategy aligns with your contract structure and operational flexibility. 

For standard flat consumption profiles, the current market justifies a 50% hedge on annual volumes or Q1-specific cover for winter-peaking loads. For clients with flexible demand, such as those integrating battery projects in Q1 2026, it may be more beneficial to leave some volume exposed to the spot market to capture potential low prices during off-peak periods. In these cases, collaboration with our Flex team is essential to optimise the outcome. 

Conversely, clients with no appetite for market exposure, such as those under percentage-based contracts with good forecasts,may opt for full coverage. Given today’s pricing, that decision isn’t necessarily off-base. However, those operating under hourly MW contracts must proceed cautiously. Fixing 100% of volume in advance could lead to costly summer resales if consumption dips and prices fall. For such profiles, we typically advise limiting the hedge to around 70%, keeping a portion of volume available for real-time optimisation. 

Geopolitical developments remain a wildcard. Hopes for a US-backed Russia–Ukraine peace plan have reduced short-term risk premiums, pushing prices lower. But these shifts are not structural. Gas flows from Russia remain constrained, and the EU’s policy direction aims to minimise future dependency. This makes current pricing more about volatility compression than a permanent supply reset. 

Weather forecasts suggest a warmer-than-average winter, but with forecasts ranging 0.5–2°C above normal and up to 10% more precipitation, uncertainty remains high. Weekly updates will be crucial. 

“A good price doesn’t equal a good strategy, it’s all about how well it fits your contract and risk appetite.” Mustafa Yanginci, Energy Manager

For support in reviewing your 2026 procurement approach or adjusting to geopolitical signals, please reach out to your Energy Manager to define a strategy aligned to your specific needs. 

Week 2

LNG Glut and Steady Nuclear Output Push Prices Lower, But Risks Remain for 2026 

Energy markets are heading into winter on solid footing. France has 59 GW of nuclear capacity online, with plans to ramp up to 62 GW through January. This strong baseline, paired with unseasonably mild weather, is reinforcing system stability. In Belgium, the closure of Doel 2 marks another step in the nuclear phase-out, though Doel 4 and Tihange 3 continue to operate, pending further policy decisions. 

On the gas side, the TTF benchmark has dropped below €28/MWh, driven by record LNG availability. Chinese import reductions, surging US and Norwegian supply, and slow Asian demand growth have tipped the balance into surplus. Traders are actively taking positions, signalling confidence in short-term market softness. However, underlying risks persist. US LNG construction delays could impact supply security in 2026, while any rebound in Asian demand may trigger a sharp price response. 

Oil remains stable compared to last week, supported by U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, with Brent holding near $65/bbl. OPEC+ confirmed it will keep production unchanged through Q1 2026, instead of continuing the increases seen throughout this year. Meanwhile, coal prices have edged down following the downward trend in gas. Carbon markets remain at similar levels to last week but stay elevated, with EUAs trading around €82/t. December typically sees lower auction volumes, putting upward pressure on prices.

Currency and macroeconomic indicators show little deviation from prior weeks. The euro remains strong, and European PMIs hover just above 50, suggesting minimal industrial momentum. Despite a soft economic backdrop, low fuel costs are offering breathing room for energy-intensive businesses. 

Forward power prices in Belgium are also beginning to benefit from the decline that was initially more pronounced in gas. Baseload contracts for 2027–2028 are dropping below €75/MWh, representing an initial opportunity to lock in prices, but not a clear signal to purchase all your volumes. Gas markets continue their downward trend. It is an interesting moment to consider fixing prices, but this should be done cautiously. We encourage you to contact your energy manager for recommendations tailored to your situation.

“The current downward trend in the market presents a clear opportunity to lock in prices, but it should be part of a well-defined strategy.”  — Mustafa Yanginci, Energy Manager

Clients with exposure to the 2026–2029 horizon should stay alert to changing fundamentals. Speak to your energy manager to review hedging options that balance today’s pricing with tomorrow’s uncertainty. 

Week 3

Bearish Gas Markets Offer Relief, but Risks Still Linger 

This week saw further softening in European gas and power markets, the TTF spot price declined. Forward contracts also trended down, reflecting weak seasonal demand and persistent oversupply. Notably, storage levels remain high for this time of year, with reserves at 75% full, just 10 percentage points below last year, despite ongoing winter drawdowns. 

Fundamentally, the market is well-supplied. LNG deliveries remain robust, and Norwegian exports continue to stabilise the system. Commercial traders have capitalised on these conditions, pushing net long positions to a four-year high. As a result, TTF briefly dipped below €28/MWh, a level not seen in recent months. 

Yet this optimism may prove fragile. The International Energy Agency now projects a record oil surplus in 2026 of up to 3.84 million barrels per day. While this is easing pressure on gas-switching economics in the short term, coal prices are also slipping, strengthening the case for coal-fired generation in some markets. Meanwhile, global LNG markets remain finely balanced: if the US or Qatar face project delays, or if a cold snap hits Asia, the picture could flip quickly. 

On the power side, prices are up slightly from last week after a period of declines. France’s Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor is now operating at 100% capacity, providing much-needed stability to the Central West European grid. Belgium’s Doel 2 reactor has officially shut down, but Doel 4 and Tihange 3, granted 10-year extensions, remain online, ensuring domestic capacity through 2035 pending further policy decisions. 

“While today’s market is calm, structural risks remain. We’re advising clients to monitor closely and stay flexible.” — Boy Curry-Lindahl, Energy Manager 

Energy-intensive clients should remain vigilant. The current downturn offers some margin relief, but any unexpected disruption, geopolitical or climatic, could reverse trends rapidly. As 2026 planning continues, timing and hedging strategies must be carefully aligned with each client’s operational needs and risk appetite.